An Aldi supermarket could reduce Jempson’s central Rye store’s turnover by 37% according to independent analysis released on August 19. The same day consultants working for Jempson's claimed the reduction could be as much as 50%.
A decision on the Winchelsea Road development is expected soon, however it is not on the agenda for next week's Rother District Council Planning Committee meeting, due to take place on September 4.
The lower figure comes from a report written by Nexus Planning analysing retail and town centre planning policy issues on behalf of Rother District Council (RDC). It concludes that while there would be “a clear adverse impact upon the health of Rye town centre” the greatest impact would be on Jempson’s Rye store.
The report also says the £2.84 million reduction in turnover would lead to fewer “linked trips” to the town centre. Of course, this could be outweighed by the advantages of a second store — including much-needed competition and lower food prices.
A crucial factor in the upcoming planning decision may be car parking arrangements at the proposed Aldi store. It appears that if RDC decides to approve the new supermarket, conditions could be imposed on the use of its car park. In effect, Aldi would need to allow customers to park for a reasonable length of time to enable them to visit other services or shops in town.
“We consider that the issues are finely balanced and will be influenced by the weight that is placed on the key factors … by the local authority,” the report said. These issues include strong community support for an Aldi and the potential to reduce trips to supermarkets far from Rye, such as Hastings and Tenterden.
In light of their analysis, the consultants claimed there were “three potential outcomes” for Jempson’s Rye store: closure, downsizing and / or reduced investment, or continuation of the current store.
The report agreed that a significant number of people use Jempson’s as part of a "linked trip" with other parts of the town centre and that any trade diversion from the store could have an impact on the town centre as a whole.
Smaller convenience stores in Rye could see a 9% reduction of turnover by 2027 if Aldi enters the town, the report suggested.
Meanwhile, also on August 19, Jempson’s consultant Peacock & Smith (P&S) submitted a fifth letter to RDC and now claims the incumbent supermarket would lose almost 50% of its trade to Aldi. This figure is much higher than the projected 31% turnover loss claimed late last year.
Aldi’s edge-of-town location would mean fewer people walking to the main town shopping area and would predominantly attract car users to the new store, P&S asserted.
The consultant also said Aldi usually required a community with a population of 15,000 to support a new store, which raised questions about where its business would come from and its impact on Rye town centre. It claimed a halving of Jempson’s turnover would “lead to a significant decline in the number of shoppers visiting the rest of the town centre”.
However, some argue this doesn’t appear to have occurred in Hawkhurst (population 3,683), where Tesco and Waitrose coexist and where Jempson's used to operate a grocery store (occupied by Waitrose since 2016).
Neither reports assess the retail impact of online shopping.
The Nexus report appears to represent one of the last “outstanding matters” in the complex planning jigsaw for the Aldi supermarket, retirement accommodation and 16 private homes on the Winchelsea Road site.
A planning decision by RDC is expected very soon.
